The familiar global weather patterns that we, our parents, and our grandparents (and most of our distant ancestors) have always experienced, are no more. We have entered an abrupt climate change phase. Our energized water-primed atmosphere and disrupted circulation patterns give rise to unfamiliar, massive and powerfully destructive storms, torrential rains, widespread heat waves, droughts, and widespread deep freeze cold spells.
The Deep Freeze
In this video, I discuss the severity and extent of the North American deep freeze resulting from fractured jet streams due to climate change. Also discussed is extreme stress on infrastructure (roads, rail, pipelines,…) from rapid 40 degree C temperature swings.
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Why is this deep freeze happening now? Sophisticated Earth System computer Models (ESMs), summaries of state-of-the-art peer reviewed climate science (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC), and mainstream science have generally put the climate change threat out to the latter part of the century. Global data from all parts of the world, but most noticeably the Arctic, shows that reality is quite different from these models and mainstream thinking.
Just by looking out the window much of humanity now senses that something is very different, and uncomfortably wrong. Depending on location, vegetation is drying out and burning, or being toppled by very high wind events, or oceans are invading coastlines, or rivers are overrunning banks or drying up or both, while rainfall deluges are inundating other regions.
Some regions are vacillating between massive floods and massive droughts, or record high temperatures and record low temperatures, even on a weekly basis. As crazy as things are now, clearly they are not bad enough to wake up the general population. We need a wake-up call to vote down denier politicians and demand extensive governmental action on the problem.
The Hammer of Extreme Weather
Not to worry, that much needed action is a sure bet in the near future. The only question is will it happen next year, or in 3 years? In the meantime, many of us are doing as much as we can to educate people on the dangers we face and speed up the understanding of climate reality. Ultimately it will be the hammer of extreme weather – causing global crop failures or taking out a few more cities in rich countries – that will lead to an essential and abrupt tipping point in human behavior.
The key to the disruption in the climate system is the Arctic. Human emissions have inexorably increased levels of carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases – GHGs) in the atmosphere causing an incremental increase of global mean surface temperature of 0.8 degrees C over the last century. In the last 3 decades, the GHGs have caused rampant warming in the Arctic accelerating the melting of land-covered snow and ocean-covered ice. Highly reflective surfaces have been replaced by dark underlying land and ocean, greatly increasing sunlight absorption and causing Arctic temperature amplification of 3x to 5x and higher.
This has melted permafrost on the land and on the shallow continental shelves and has increased Arctic methane emissions. On a molecule-to-molecule basis, this phenomenon leads to a warming >150x compared to carbon dioxide on a short timescale.
Arctic temperature amplification has reduced the equator-to-Arctic temperature difference which drives the global circulation patterns of the rotating Earth. Thus, the high speed jet stream winds which circumvent the globe become slower, and wavier, and weather patterns change. Extreme weather events become stronger, more frequent, of longer duration, and act on new regions. In effect, the climate background has changed. When the climate system changes, all weather events change.
So how does the North American deep freeze of January, 2014 fit into this picture? In our familiar climate, the polar jet stream flowed mostly west to east (with small north-south deviations or waves, with typically 4 to 7 crests and troughs around the globe) separating cold dry Arctic air from lower latitude warmer moist air. The latitude of the jet streams moves southward in our winter and northward in our summer.
In our present climate, the jet stream waviness has greatly increased and eastward average speed has decreased. Not only that, but in early January there were only two troughs (over North America and central Asia) and two crests (over Europe and the Pacific up through Alaska and the Bering Strait). The troughs had temperatures 20 degrees C cooler than normal, while the crests had temperatures 20 degrees C warmer than normal. These large waves and slowing of the jet stream are directly responsible for the changes we have been experiencing in weather extremes – cold or warm, depending on your location.
The winter of 2014 will be remembered as the Deep Freeze.
Other Posts by Paul Beckwith:
Paul Beckwith is a part-time professor with the laboratory for paleoclimatology and climatology, Department of Geography, University of Ottawa. He teaches second year climatology/meteorology. His PhD research topic is “Abrupt climate change in the past and present.” He holds an M.Sc. in laser physics and a B.Eng. in engineering physics and reached the rank of chess master in a previous life. More from Paul Beckwith’s Blog.
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