“The industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030,” claims Tony Seba. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it.
Based on Seba’s #1 Amazon bestselling book “Clean Disruption” and Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, this presentation lays out the key technologies (batteries, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles), business model innovations (ride-hailing, transportation-as-a-service #TaaS), how the technology disruption will affect existing companies and sectors (market trauma) and how it will unfold over the next decade, as well as key implications for society, finance, industry, cities, and infrastructure.
Energy and Transportation On Cusp of Makeover
Tony Seba #CleanDisruption @ Robin Hood Investors Conference 2019
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The #CleanDisruption of Energy and Transportation will be the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of energy and transportation in history. By analyzing and anticipating these disruptions, we can learn that the benefits to humanity will be immense, but to seize the upside, we will need to mitigate the downside.
Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it. The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based industries is now creating bit-and-electron-based technologies that will disrupt atom-based energy industries.
Clean Disruption projections (based on technology cost curves, business model innovation as well as product innovation) show that by 2030:
- All new energy will be provided by solar or wind.
- All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.
- All of these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving) or semi-autonomous.
- The car market will shrink by 80%.
- Gasoline will be obsolete. Nuclear is already obsolete. Natural Gas and Coal will be obsolete.
- Up to 80% of highways will not be needed.
- Up to 80% of parking spaces will not be needed.
- The concept of individual car ownership will be obsolete.
- The Car Insurance industry will be disrupted.
- The taxi industry will be obsolete.
We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport-as-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.
(The material for this post is sourced from talks/presentations given by Tony Seba at Future of Transportation / Keynote: 2020 NC Transportation Summit and Robin Hood Investors Conference 2019.)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.