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The EcoFiscal Commission has launched a blog series named the Climate Roulette in which it explores the risk factors associated with climate change. The risk of climate impacts increases exponentially as global temperatures rise.

The Climate Roulette: Are We IgnorIng Climate Risks, Below2C

“The science is clear: the future damages from climate change will increase significantly as we emit more greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. The most recent report by the International Panel of Climate Change finds a huge difference between warming of 2ºC compared to 1.5ºC,” writes Jonathan Arnold in his Risks Too Big To Ignore blog post. “The seemingly small 0.5ºC difference will mean extreme weather events will become more frequent, stronger, nastier, and costlier.”

Climate Roulette

This blog piece by Brendan Frank exposes the human side of climate risks. It is featured in Below2°C with permission.

No one can fully get their mind around climate change. Confronting even one dimension of the problem—socioeconomic, environmental, cultural, geopolitical—can be overwhelming. Fortunately, we don’t have to know everything about climate change to confront it effectively. We can examine it through the lens of risk. As part our series on climate risk, this blog looks at how climate change and extreme weather are beginning to increase risks we encounter in our daily lives.

Your daily dose of risk

Risk is a part of almost everything we do. When confronted with a decision, big or small, our brains silently assess and weigh the risks of our different options. The information we weigh is rarely complete or accurate, but our inner calculus churns constantly.

Certain actions increase certain risks. Smokers have an exponentially higher risk of developing lung cancer, and non-smokers seem to beat lung cancer more often. Driving in winter conditions increases the risk of collisions. Likewise, there are things we can do to reduce certain risks: eating healthy and exercising, buying snow tires and driving slower.

We can think of climate change along the same lines—even though quantifying and estimating that risk is a challengeEvery tonne of greenhouse gases we pump into the atmosphere very slightly increases the risk of heat waves, superstorms, droughts, floods, power outages, crop failures, ecosystem collapses, etc. Many of these challenges amplify one another in unhelpful ways, which has led to the moniker “threat multiplier”. Moreover, climate risks are dynamic. Today’s threat may not be tomorrow’s threat, and certain risks can get larger over time.

What types of risks will climate change create or exacerbate?

Mind and body health

A warming world destabilizes many of the factors that underpin our health. On an individual level, there’s a growing body of literature on mental health, cognition, and mortality. A 2018 study found that extreme heat reduced cognitive function in otherwise healthy young adults. The consequences can be far-reaching—from educational attainment to productivity. Another new study forecasts heat-related deaths in Canada could increase five-fold by mid-century compared to historic norms.

There’s also a relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and other health-damaging pollutants. Among the worst is particulate matter (a.k.a. soot) generated by coal-fired electricity, heavy industry, vehicles, and, increasingly, forest fires exacerbated by climate change. These particulates can aggravate and increase the risk of heart diseases and lung diseases (asthma in particular). Let’s take coal as an example—we can actually quantify the benefits of avoiding one tonne of pollution from coal power across provinces.

In addition to chronic health issues, climate change is increasing the risk of disease transmission. A quick example: warmer average temperatures are expanding the territories of disease-carrying insects like ticks. The incidence of Lyme disease in Canada has increased sevenfold over the last decade.

Climate risk in our communities

Here are a few headlines:

First, our communities won’t work as well. Extreme weather—especially flooding—will disrupt how our cities and towns function, claiming lives and livelihoods in the process. Costly rebuilds like the ones in Fort McMurraySaint John or Interior British Columbia will increasingly command our attention and resources. A new report from Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation shows the trend in insurance claims from extreme weather.

More plainly, insurance payouts for catastrophic losses have averaged $1.9 billion a year since 2009. Between 1983 and 2008, they averaged $405 million.

It’s important to point out that climate change didn’t necessarily cause any of these events. Rather, it led to conditions that increased the risk of events like this occurring. In the case of the Fort McMurray fire, unusually hot and dry conditions and strong winds made fires worse—the same way that not using snow tires or wearing a seatbelt can make winter collisions worse.

Our infrastructure won’t work as well, either. Extreme weather poses new risks to our roads, bridges, homes, and supply chains, affecting delivery of vital services like water and power. Take electricity generation, for example, which is responsible for 67% of all water withdrawals in Canada. Warmer average temperatures mean warmer water, which means we’ll need more of it to cool off our powerplants, which means less efficient power generation. Abnormally dry seasons will also disrupt hydropower generation. Peak demand for power during heatwaves has already disrupted power supplies in Canadian cities. (Fortunately, we can plan ahead on this particular issue.)

Finally, we won’t work as well. Since we’re less likely to be healthy, we won’t work as much or as productively. This poses new risks to employment, investment, trade, and economic prosperity. By 2030, heat waves alone could cost the world US$2 trillion in labour productivity.

Climate risk does not respect borders

Let’s briefly zoom out further. Climate risk has implications for a host of geopolitical issues, including resource development, trade, food security, international relations, and immigration.

Climate change will alter the relative scarcity of natural resources between countries. It will shift the distribution and quality of waterforests, and arable land, creating large-scale societal risks that will spill over borders. Lower global crop yields and potential food web collapses will likely reduce access to nutrition, posing new risks for everything from childhood development to international relations.

Perhaps the most profound geopolitical risk is water accessA brand new study finds that the Himalayas—a water source for roughly 2 billion people—could lose two-thirds of their glaciers by 2100.

Sea-level rise is another significant geopolitical risk, which could displace tens of millions of people in the coming decades. Relocating these climate refugees will require extraordinary multilateral co-operation, making current tensions over immigration look comparatively minor.

Of course, these massive multilateral issues will spread across different geographies and demographics unevenly. Developing countries will bear a disproportionate share of climate risk, in part because they lack adaptive capacity.

Inaction is lose-lose

Looking at these (painfully brief) examples, what patterns emerge? First, the risks of climate change are far-reaching. They will be felt by all levels of society, all levels of government, and unequally across geographies and demographics. Second, that heightened risk will increasingly cost lives and livelihoods and strain our infrastructure and institutions.

Third, we can do something about all of this. We can take steps to reduce these risks. Every action taken to address this massive challenge matters. Staying under two degrees Celsius as outlined in the Paris Agreement could save the world trillions—as much as $17 trillion a year by 2100.

Looking at climate change through the lens of risk helps illustrate why inaction is a lose-lose proposition.

Related articles:
Our Health And Climate Change
Climate Change = Extreme Weather. What You Need To Know
2018 Climate News Dominated by Extreme Weather

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Creative Commons License

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